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Reply to "Carlisle 2021.... Save the Dates !"

Checking in, gentlemen.

As things stand now, Mid-late May is looking pretty good. Yeah, a lot of folks will not yet have been vaccinated (including my wife and I, probably), but a lot of folks will have been. Barring a resurgence by some new and more evil strain, I think it will probably be safe enough for most of the folks on this board to risk, though masks will probably still be mandatory.

As for the linked article: it's not some Holman Jenkins nonsense. It's by Marty Makary, a Hopkins oncologist who has done a lot of work on the prevention of medical errors. He is not an epidemiologist but he's a smart MD with some pretty good risk management chops and his head is on straight. I interviewed him years ago after reviewing one of his books.

The gist of his WSJ opinion piece is: things may not be as bad as they seem, and they might be getting better faster than most experts realize. It is not a universal opinion; this expert is pushing back.

But it's worth considering, since we're obliged to plan things out a few months ahead of time.

"Hope for the best and prepare for the worst," right? I figure in this context that means "book the rooms and wax the car, and if it all goes sour, pull the plug and hunker down at the last minute."

I am cautiously optimistic we will indeed be able to roll Carlisle this year.

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